Published October 4, 2026 in Market Update

Primary market inventory fell even as more homes sold

By Victoria B. Torres

Real estate, Primary market

The one fact that changes what you should do right now: the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted only 628 homes for sale across the Primary market in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is down 17% from a year before. Fewer listings mean less competition if you list.

At the same time, 1,245 homes sold, up 3.8% from the year before, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. More sales, fewer homes available. That is a tighter market for anyone searching.

New listings across the Primary market fell 7.7%, the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows. Fewer sellers are entering. That keeps inventory low even when sales are rising.

Redfin reported on September 30, 2026 that just under 10% of San Francisco sellers cut their asking price. That is a small share. Most sellers here are not giving ground.

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. That is above 7%, the level a Redfin Senior Economist flagged on September 30, 2026 as a weight on buyer demand. Higher rates slow some buyers. That can work in a seller's favor on pricing patience, but it also shrinks the buyer pool.

How each ZIP code read in the same period

The market-wide numbers tell one story. The ZIP codes tell several. Here is what the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted for each one in the three months ending July 31, 2026.

Prices rose in most ZIPs but fell in a handful. ZIP 94131 saw the biggest year-over-year gain, up 38.4%, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. ZIP 94545 saw the sharpest drop, down 7.9%. Not every neighborhood moved the same way.

Where inventory tightened most

ZIP 94127 stands out. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted only 8 homes for sale there, down 52.9% from a year before. That is a very thin shelf of choices for buyers in that area.

ZIP 94536 and 94538 went the other way. Both added inventory year over year. Buyers searching there had a little more to look at.

How fast homes are selling

Most of the market is moving fast. Thirteen of the fifteen ZIPs had a median under 20 days. That said, ZIP 94014 took 27 days at the median, and that was 8 days longer than the year before. Not every home sells quickly.

Are homes selling above list price?

In ZIP 94112, the Real Estate Data Aggregator found that 82.4% of homes sold above list price. The average sale came in at 121.9% of list. That is a ZIP where buyers are competing hard. In ZIP 94539, only 44.4% sold above list, down 7.8 points from a year ago. The same market can feel very different depending on where you are.

The wider picture

Nationally, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that U.S. house prices rose 2.1% year over year between the second quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026. The Primary market's price gains in several ZIPs ran well ahead of that pace.

The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales fell 2.0% in August 2026. Year-to-date through the first eight months, they were up 1.6%. Nationally, months of supply reached 4.9 months, the highest level in over ten years, the National Association of Realtors said. The Primary market, with well under two months of supply in most ZIPs, is a different situation entirely.